Alternative Fuel Company Case

Our reading this week emphasizes the role of demand management in
creating a coordinated flow of demand across the supply chain.
Experience shows that selecting the best method of estimating demand
will vary with the maturity of the business and the data available.
Address the following:

  1. A start-up alternative fuel automobile company has a first year
    market forecast of 1000 units. Identify the forecasting model that is in
    use here and explain why it is the obvious choice.
  2. During its first three full years of operation the automobile company had actual sales of:
    1. Year One: 800 units
    2. Year Two: 1200 units
    3. Year Three: 2000 units
    4. Using a simple three year moving average, calculate the predicted demand for Year Four. Explain your reasoning.
  3. The sales department expects the growth in Year Four to more closely
    resemble the average growth experienced in the last two years. Predict
    the number of units expected in Year Four. Discuss whether you would
    recommend this quantity as the manufacturing plan or the quantity found
    using the simple three year moving average in step two and why.
  4. In Year Three, one fourth of the production was sold in China. The
    marketing department has just learned of a new tax that will be imposed
    on all luxury imports into China beginning in Year Four. It is expected
    that this will decrease sales to China by 50%. Apply this market
    intelligence to the simple three year moving average method discussed in
    step two and recalculate the predicted demand for Year Four. Explain
    how you arrived at your answer.(4 page)

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